Crude oil may decline on speculation that U.S. inventories will extend gains as demand lags because of the recession, a survey of analysts showed.
Twenty-four of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 69 percent,

said futures will fall through August 7. It’s the most bearish response
since March 2008. Six respondents, or 17 percent, forecast that prices
will be little changed and five expected an increase. Last week, 46
percent of analysts said oil would drop.
Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and
heating oil, are at their highest level since January 1985. They
climbed 2.1 million barrels to 162.6 million last week, an Energy
Department report on July 29 showed.
Inventories of crude oil are 18 percent higher than they were at this time last year.
“Why traders are eager to buy this market escapes me,” Tim Evans, an
energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said in a
telephone interview. “This is not just a market that is incrementally
oversupplied, this is a glut.”
U.S. refinery use last week fell 1.3 percentage points to 84.6 percent
or capacity, its second consecutive drop, and 2.6 percentage points
below a year ago, according to the Energy Department.
Total U.S. daily fuel demand over the four weeks ended July 24 averaged
18.7 million barrels, down 4.1 percent from a year earlier, the
department said. Distillate fuel demand averaged 3.3 million barrels a
day over the period, down 11 percent from last year.
Rising Equities
Oil has strengthened from rising equity prices which are indirectly a
focus on future oil demand, Evans said. “A more comprehensive analysis
includes the supply side of the market as well as factors in current
demand, which is weak.”
Crude oil for September delivery fell $1.11, or 1.6 percent, to $66.94
a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices
are up 50 percent this year.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

Source: Bloomberg

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