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Natural gas gains in New York as the economy better demand signals

Freight News | January 30, 2010 | View Comments
  • Natural gas futures advanced in New York on anticipation demand for the industrial fuel will rebound after the U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years.

    A recovery at factories will help to lift use of natural gas, which
    relies on industry for 29 percent of consumption. The economy expanded
    5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department
    report. Forecasters also predicted cold weather may linger in the
    Midwest and East.

    “Gross domestic product is helping a bit and we’ll probably get a
    bounce,” said Tom Orr, director of research at Weeden & Co., a
    brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. “It was also very cold here this
    morning and the forecasts will probably get a little chillier.”

    Natural gas for March delivery rose 11.7 cents, or 2.3 percent, to
    $5.255 per million British thermal units at 11:19 a.m. on the New York
    Mercantile Exchange. The March contract had fallen 11 percent this week
    to a seven-week closing low through yesterday. Gas futures have dropped
    5.7 percent this month.

    Industrial demand for gas declined 9.8 percent through the first 10
    months of 2009 with the worst recession since the 1930s cutting
    purchases by steel mills, chemical plants and other large
    manufacturers.

    The economy was forecast to grow at a 4.7 percent annual pace in the
    fourth quarter, according to the median estimate of 84 economists in a
    Bloomberg News survey.

    Demand Boost

    “If you have greater-than-expected growth, then you’ll likely have
    greater-than-expected demand,” said Cameron Horwitz, an analyst at
    SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc. in Houston. “The economy fell off a
    cliff last year and that had a massive feedback into gas demand.
    Hopefully we’ve repaired that and are back on track to continue
    growing.”

    SunTrust Robinson anticipates industrial gas consumption will rise 5 to
    6 percent in 2010, based on the U.S. economy expanding 2.5 percent, he
    said.

    Cold weather will cover the eastern half of the U.S. now through Feb.
    2, according to MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather of
    Rockville, Maryland. Below-normal temperatures, which yesterday were
    predicted to begin fading later next week, will now hang on along the
    Eastern Seaboard, EarthSat said.

    EarthSat also eliminated from its 11-to-15-day forecast a prediction
    made yesterday of above-normal temperatures for the eastern two-thirds
    of the U.S. EarthSat is now predicting normal winter weather for most
    of the country Feb. 8 to Feb. 12.

    Economic Optimism

    The GDP report “will inject a degree of optimism into an environment of
    general skepticism about the pace and sustainability of recovery and
    may lift prices temporarily,” Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of
    energy at MF Global in New York, said in a note to clients.

    He said a “few days of cold this late in the season” may push prices beyond $6.

    Other economic reports also signaled demand may begin to pick up for natural gas.

    Companies in the U.S. expanded this month at the fastest clip in more than four years.

    The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its
    business barometer climbed to 61.5, the highest level since November
    2005, from 58.7 last month. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion.

    Confidence among U.S. consumers rose to the highest level in two years.
    The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment
    rose to 74.4 from December’s 72.5. The figure exceeded a preliminary
    reading for January of 72.8.

    Source: Bloomberg

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