The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries next year because of delays to North American projects.

Non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 60 percent of the global
total, will provide 51.6 million barrels a day in 2010, or 265,000
barrels a day less than previously anticipated, the adviser to 28
nations said in its monthly report today. Projections for non-OPEC
supply through to 2014 were boosted as higher investment restores
delayed projects.

“Some changes were made to crude project start-up dates, especially in
the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in downward revisions there,” the agency
said. Supplies of natural gas liquids, or NGLs, from North America will
be lower than the IEA had predicted.

The IEA raised its forecast for 2010 global oil demand and boosted its
medium-term consumption outlook through to 2014, on expectations of
economic recovery.

Worldwide oil demand is likely to average 86.3 million barrels a day
next year, 130,000 a day more than previously estimated, the adviser
said. Between 2009 and 2014 demand will average 1.9 million barrels a
day more than the agency’s last medium-term projection in June.

The IEA attributed the change to “much stronger-than- expected oil
demand growth in 2009 as a result of massive fiscal and monetary
stimuli implemented by governments across the world” and higher growth
expectations from the International Monetary Fund.

Demand Increase

Demand worldwide will increase by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 1.7
percent, in 2010 compared with this year, led by China and India, it
said. The agency left demand estimates for this year unchanged at 84.9
million barrels a day.

“A key risk to the forecast pertains to the U.S. outlook,” the report
said. “Demand remains stubbornly sluggish, with a continued contraction
in distillate deliveries and very modest growth in gasoline demand.”

Between 2008 and 2014 non-OPEC supply will expand by 700,000 barrels a
day to average 51.4 million a day, compared with a decline projected in
the IEA’s last medium-term report in June.

“The outlook for supply overall has improved, with a higher price
assumption and a widespread perception that the worst of the global
economic crisis is over,” the report said. “Many upstream projects are
back on the drawing board.”

Output from OPEC, due to meet in Angola on Dec. 22 for a review of
quotas, climbed to its highest in a year during November, averaging
29.1 million barrels a day, the IEA said. A lull in militant attacks on
oil facilities in Nigeria was behind the increase.

The compliance rate among the 11 OPEC members subject to production
quotas slipped to 58 percent last month from 60 percent in October,
with Iran and Angola violating their limits most, according to the
agency.

Source: Bloomberg

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