Commodity markets are on course for their strongest year since 1973, lifted by oil’s biggest annual gains in a decade and a 140 percent surge in copper prices.

With the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index .CRB on track for a 24 percent
rally in 2009, gold heading for its ninth increase in as many years,
sugar near record highs and cocoa headed for its fourth annual rise,
traders are describing 2009 as “the year of commodities.”

But the strategies that worked this year may fail in 2010 as the market
switches from picking up bargains left in the wake of the financial
market meltdown that started in 2008 to a strategy based on macro
economic data and fundamentals. “The year 2009 was really a value
proposition, it was about momentum buying on value, which was buying on
cheapness in the market,” Mark Pervan, Head of Commodity Research at
ANZ, said.

“2010 is going to be much more macro driven, more fundamentally driven.
You won’t see so much influence from the dollar. It will be more
closely aligned with supply and demand.”

First amongst CRB constituents is copper, which is heading for a rally of nearly 140 percent this year.

Unprecedented levels of Chinese imports, speculative fervor and more
lately, threats to supply, have pushed London copper from a 50-month
low of $2,825 in December last year to a 16-month peak of $7,415 on New
Year’s Eve.

Injecting a little extra fizz into copper bulls’ New Year celebrations
is the imminent strike by workers at Chile’s giant Chuquicamata mine,
who are preparing to down tools within days after owner Codelco, the
world’s No. 1 copper miner, refused to back down in a wage negotiation
spat.

Even the arrival of 10,000 tons of copper in LME warehouses on
Wednesday, the biggest increase in percentage terms since September,
bringing stocks to just shy of half a million tons, wasn’t enough to
cool investor ardor.

Peng Qiang, an analyst at COFCO Futures said: “The upward trend in the
market remains, despite the jump in LME copper stocks yesterday and the
firm dollar.”

Sugar is another standout in 2009 — up the best part of 130 percent.

“2010 may be the year of the tiger, but 2009 was the year of commodities,” a trader in Sydney said.

“I am a little surprised markets haven’t given back more for the end of
the year. Given that, I reckon 2010 will see us off to the races.
Precious metals in particular should chase higher,”

He said gold, currently at $1,197.7 and up a quarter this year and
having touched a record high of $1,226.10 earlier this month, would
find support down to $1,070, with investors targeting a move toward
$1,300 or higher.

But he doubted sugar would repeat its sweet 2009 performance.

“The thing with sugar is that it can fix itself in a year. It’s not
like the eight years it takes to build a copper mine or 25 years an oil
refinery can take.”

Oil prices have also surged, up nearly 80 percent in the year, but the
market would need to rally an additional more than 80 percent to top
its record high of last year near $150 a barrel.

U.S. crude for February delivery rose 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to
$79.65 a barrel by 0506 GMT, after touching a five-week high of $79.85
in quiet pre-holiday trade, just shy of the psychologically key $80
mark. Prices have risen 14 percent in just over two weeks.

On the downside, grains failed to inspire this year — wheat has
tumbled 11 percent while corn managed a paltry 1.5 percent rise.

Soy rose 6.5 percent for the year, with strong demand led by top buyer
China and poor supplies from Latin America countered by a record U.S.
harvest.

Analysts said expectations of bumper soy production in South America will likely weigh on soy’s 2010 outlook.

Source: Reuters

Search to find what you want

• China scrap copper output seen peak of 2014

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China’s locally-produced copper scrap is expected to peak as early as 2014, a director at powerful industry body the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said on

• China s refined copper imports Climb 29% in September

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Refined copper imports by China, the world’s largest consumer, climbed for the first time in three months in September as increasing demand outweighed the higher costs

• China to increase to 100K T copper-capacity next month

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China is boosting copper production capacity to feed expanding domestic consumption, although its dependence on imported concentrates and scrap will rise. Privately-owned Huada Group in Zhejiang

• China produces 496,000 tonnes of copper concentrate Jan.-July

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China produced 496,000 tons of copper concentrate between January and July of this year, as was said at the Ninth International Forum on Regenerated Metals in

• China copper imports drop for the first time in 6 months

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China’s imports of copper and the metal’s products in July dropped for the first time in six months, declining from a record, after stockpiles increased in

• China copper imports drop for the first time in 6 months

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China’s imports of copper and the metal’s products in July dropped for the first time in six months, declining from a record, after stockpiles increased in

• Australia sees copper output at decade low

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Australia slashed its forecasts for copper production and exports for fiscal 2010, blaming disruptions at BHP Billiton’s BHP.X giant Olympic Dam mine for what would be

• China August refined copper imports fall 219,731 T

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China’s imports of refined copper fell for a second straight month to 219,731 tonnes in August from 292,226 tonnes in July, data from the General Administration

• China copper output to grow 1 million tonnes per year 3 years

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China’s copper products output increased by about one million tons annually in the past three years, with its proportion in the world output rising by 10

• China copper imports seen flat or less November

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. China’s November imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products are expected to be flat, or fall slightly from the previous month, limited by strong LME

• Kazakhmys CEO: Copper demand outstrip supply in coming years

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Kazakhmys PLC, Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer, expects copper demand will remain robust in the years to come and will outstrip supply in the near term, the

• Anglo sees copper output at 1.2 million tonnes by 2014

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Global miner Anglo American said Monday it expects its total copper output to reach 1,2-million tons by 2014. Anglo’s copper business unit CEO John MacKenzie reiterated

• China Jiangxi Copper Seeking Above $ 10 treatment fee 50/Ton-Source

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s largest copper smelter by output, expects copper treatment and refining charges to drop next year on tight concentrate supply, but is still

• BHP to $ 7.6 billion investment in Chile again – report

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Top global miner BHP Billiton plans to revive projects worth around $7.6 billion (4.7 billion pounds) in world No. 1 copper producer Chile from 2011, a

• Copper ends up on China arbitrage Outlook 2010

     hide Altavista Search Results You arrived here after searching for the following phrases: gold, raw materials, ship Click a phrase to jump to the first occurrence, or return to the search results. Copper prices defied a stronger dollar to climb more than 1 percent on Monday as investors poured money into industrial metals, betting that demand will escalate